Two years back, it seemed the NBA’s 3-point transformation was winding down. During the 2022-23 season, teams recorded their first decline in 3-point attempts per game in over a decade. In the 2023-24 season, the figures remained below those of the 2021-22 season.
However, just two months into the 2024-25 campaign, the 3-point barrage is making a strong return. Teams are now taking 42.4% of their shots from long range—an increase that was hinted at during the preseason. Historically, the 3-point shooting rate has never surpassed 40% in a full season.
Six NBA franchises are now taking over 45% of their shots from the perimeter. In the seasons between 2019-20 and 2022-23, only two or three teams would reach that metric annually, with only one team achieving this last year when the Boston Celtics, the eventual NBA champions, recorded 47.1% of their shots from beyond the arc. This season, the Celtics are currently posting a remarkable 55.2%, positioning them to potentially break the all-time record.
With approximately 100 possessions per team in an NBA match, adding even 2.5 more 3-point attempts per game represents a significant increase. This rise is the third most notable jump between any two seasons in NBA history (excluding 1994-95 when the 3-point line was repositioned). In the current season, 22 out of 30 teams are launching more 3s than they did last year.
This recent uptick, unlike previous surges in the history of the NBA, cannot solely be attributed to simple calculations. In the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, 3-point shots were significantly more efficient than 2-pointers in terms of points per attempt. However, by the 2021-22 season, this disparity had narrowed significantly due to the gradual shift away from ineffective long 2s in favor of 3s, resulting in a near equivalence in value between the two shot types ever since.
Presently, teams are motivated to shoot a higher volume of 3s primarily for the purpose of spacing the court and compelling defenses to cover a larger area, rather than relying on the straightforward math of 3 points being greater than 2 points that drove past shooting trends. Furthermore, as shooting effectiveness near the basket has improved alongside the enhanced spacing, defenses are reinforcing their protection of the paint, consequently prompting even more attempts from beyond the arc.
The nature of the 3-point attempts being taken has also evolved. Historically, the rise in 3-point shots was predominantly fueled by catch-and-shoot players stationed behind the arc. This season, however, there’s a noticeable shift where pull-up shooters are taking deeper shots rather than settling for midrange jumpers.
Indeed, catch-and-shoot 3s have increased by 5% year-over-year, while pull-up 3s have surged by 13%. This uptick in long-range attempts has largely come at the expense of pull-up 2s, which have dropped by 9% compared to last season.
This increase in 3-point shooting has predominantly been led by star players, as role players typically rely more on catch-and-shoot opportunities. The league has seen an overall 7% increase in 3-point shooting, but this season’s All-Star guards are launching 19% more attempts from beyond the arc compared to last season.
Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns, known for his skills in the midrange, is now averaging 7.6 3-point attempts per game after previously averaging 6.1. His shots from 10 feet to the arc have noticeably decreased. Anthony Edwards from the Minnesota Timberwolves, famed for his high-flying dunks and acrobatic drives, has raised his 3-point attempts per game from 6.7 to 9.9, aligning closer to Stephen Curry’s figures. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who has a career average of 35% from downtown, has bumped his attempts from 3.6 to 6.0 per game.
While an increase in 3-point shots isn’t intrinsically negative, the unprecedented frequency with which superstars are shooting them off the dribble comes with trade-offs. Specifically, many of the league’s brightest stars are bypassing thrilling plays within the arc where they can exhibit their agility, ball-handling skills, and athleticism. For instance, Edwards has only executed 14 dunks in 34 games this season, down from almost one per game last year.
A segment of NBA fans on social media has voiced their discontent regarding these changes. Last month, a two-minute highlight from an NBA Cup game between the Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers, which featured the teams missing eight consecutive 3-pointers, gained significant traction online. The clip, titled “Why don’t you watch the NBA anymore? THIS is why,” attracted over 10 million views.
The league does not feel there is a widespread belief that the frequency of 3-pointers attempted poses a problem. “If this style of play is not appealing to the majority of [our] stakeholders, then it would naturally be our responsibility to address that. However, that is not the feedback we are currently receiving,” stated NBA EVP of basketball strategy and analytics Evan Wasch. “We’ve certainly heard from a segment—teams, players, fans, media—who believe that there may be too many threes. Conversely, there are others who enjoy it and actually wish to see even more due to the excitement it brings.”
Wasch pointed out that the time players spend shooting the basketball occupies a relatively small portion of an NBA game, and emphasized that different playing styles can yield 3s, some of which are captivating, while others may not be.
“It’s not just a 3-point issue,” remarked commissioner Adam Silver to reporters before last month’s NBA Cup final. “Rather, some offenses may start to appear somewhat formulaic, with teams imitating each other. I believe that is something worthy of our attention.”
Critics may be reacting to the widespread use of spread pick-and-rolls, which allow stars to create open shots through screens or attract a mismatch instead of frequently attempting to outmaneuver an elite defender in isolation, a tactic that was more prevalent in the past. Fans expressing concern over “too many 3s” might be yearning for the post-up game, which the average team now employs on less than 4% of all possessions.
“For the most part, I think the game is still perceived to be in a really positive space,” Wasch said. “The quality of spacing, ball movement, high-paced action, the caliber of shots teams are generating, and the ability for teams to defend remains strong.”
Moreover, nostalgic critiques about the significant shift in teams’ dependence on jumpers are misaligned with the statistics. Since most 3-pointers largely replace long 2-pointers, the overall percentage of shots that are jump shots has not fluctuated drastically. In 2005, 43% of shots were taken from 16 feet or further. By 2025, that figure is projected to be 47%.
“In the 90s, players would take poor midrange jumpers all game long and nobody batted an eye,” commented Phoenix Suns superstar Kevin Durant in response to a user during a discussion with fans on X, previously known as Twitter, regarding the league’s decreasing TV ratings.
However, all the rational arguments are moot if fans sense something amiss with the product and choose to switch the channel. “We need to take seriously the idea of increasing diversity in offense,” Silver stated.
Nonetheless, devising a rule change that adequately addresses all the concerns raised proves challenging. For example, the frequently suggested longer 3-point line would merely expand the inefficient midrange zone that teams are already hesitant to shoot from. Wasch indicated that there is not a specific rule change being contemplated by the league, and that no such alterations would be “on the horizon.”
“We’re not in the business of seeking solutions for problems that don’t exist,” Wasch said. “Our focus is to ascertain whether there are genuine issues and how potential rule changes could affect those challenges.”
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